The Assessor Winter 2026 PDF - Flipbook - Page 28
JOURNAL
ENGINEERING
ARE BEVS
REALLY
FINISHED
Twin battery cooling
circuits, a heat
pump and multiple
electric pumps – all
controlled via the
vehicle and battery
monitoring system.
This is the Porsche
Cayenne, new
for 2026.
IN THE UK?
The automotive business model has changed very little since the late 1890s, writes
Andrew Marsh, Technical Director, AutoBody Bible, Hon Fellow of IAEA, FIMI. A vehicle
manufacturer raises an immense pile of debt to invest in massive quantities of very
specialist tooling, paying for an entire project to run without income for anywhere from
18 months to seven years. Once released, the vehicles are built and sold in the largest
possible quantity from the investment.
POLITICAL IDEAS
Many BEV fans refer to the 2025
success of cars and light vans powered
by battery electric powertrains sold in
Norway. That sounds impressive until
one realises…
1. Norway had roughly the same
access to oil and gas wealth from
the North Sea as the UK did, but
only ever had a total population of
5.53 million people – less than half
the population of London.
2. The policy around BEV sales was
driven by signi昀椀cant subsidies
funded by the sovereign fund, which
is the host for tax income from the
North Sea oil and gas. The UK had
the same scale of income for 58
million, rising now to 70 million
people.
3. The ‘97.6%of new cars were
registered (35,188) was the total
for December 2025, ahead of
signi昀椀cant subsidy reductions in
2026.
4. 179,550 new cars were registered in
Norway during 2025, of which BEVs
accounted for 95.5%.
Apart from Norway having the wealth
to indulge in BEVs, having built up
sales via incentives over more than
10 years, only now in 2025 does peak
rate-of-change occur. As of December
2024:
• There were 788,753 BEV cars
(27.3%).
MIXED MARKET ECONOMY
For comparison, here the numbers for
the UK as of December 2024:
• The UK had 36,165,401 cars.
• 1,334,108 were BEVs (3.7%).
In 2025 the UK sold 2,020,520 new
cars, of which:
• 473,378 cars were BEVs,
• 280,185 cars were HEVs,
• 225,143 cars were PHEVs.
• 937,938 cars were petrol engine
powered.
• 103,906 cars were diesel engine
powered.
Car
Van
2024
22%
10%
2025
28%
16%
2026
33%
24%
2027
38%
34%
2028
52%
46%
2029
66%
58%
2030
80%
70%
We can see to change 36 million
vehicles (of which by 2025, 1.8 million
were BEVs) would take 17 years to
complete the change, if only new BEVs
were sold.
The reality is even if the DfT ‘staircase’
to demand 70% of all new cars will be
BEVs by 2030 is not achieved – it won’t
be – there is a viable BEV marketplace
running at circa 22% with incentives or
closer to 15% without.
Further, the much-troubled PHEV
is about to be reborn as a
range-entended EV, where an
on-board internal combustion engine
will have limited to zero direct
mechanical drive, but instead provide
electricity on demand.
Then there’s the alternative battery
chemistries, and even alternative
constructions. For instance,
Sodium-ion weighs about 50% more
than any Lithium-ion con昀椀guration,
but is relatively stable and costs
around $58 per kWh – the cheapest
Lithium-ion sources cost more
around $75 per kWh, and the highest
performance Lithium-ion creations
(latest cathode and anode materials as
well as most adventurous electrolyte)
can cost $200 to $300 per kWh.
Options such as Sodium-ion potentially
open up smaller, more cost critical
applications whereas the very latest
chemistries, the very best battery
energy storage density, will appear on
more expensive vehicles.
• There were 2,889,023 cars (out of
5,431,513 vehicles, which includes
trailers).
28
THE ASSESSORS JOURNAL | WINTER 2026 | www.iaea-online.org/news/the-assessor
